Bluff Catching in Poker: When Is the River Call Good?
The Bluff-Catching Ledger
A bluff catcher is only profitable when the opponent actually has enough bluffs. Beating a bluff is not the same as having a good call.
Why this matters
River decisions feel binary, but the math is a ledger. The bet size tells you how often your call must be correct. Your range work tells you whether the opponent can plausibly arrive with enough bluffs to meet that requirement.
Do not pad the bluff column with every missed draw imaginable. Ask which bluffs actually take this line, which value hands do, and whether this opponent is capable of pulling the trigger at the required frequency.
Fast example
If the price means you need to be right about one time in four, your opponent must arrive with enough credible bluffs to support roughly that threshold. If the value side is dense and the missed draws rarely fire, folding is not being exploited; it is reading the ledger.
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